Saab Happy Days Ahead....Gripen Acceptable Babe

Saab Happy Days Ahead....Gripen Acceptable Babe (NSI News Source Info) November 19, 2008: The floodgates are about to open on billions of dollars of global military spending on new combat aircraft. With several hundred fighter purchases up for grabs, the stakes are high for all the entrants. The issues differ somewhat for each company. Boeing and Lockheed Martin would like to prolong the production lives of their F-15 and F-16 lines, respectively; Dassault wants to finally secure its first export order, and Eurofighter Typhoon is trying to expand its base to compensate for potential cuts from core customers. So it's hard to pinpoint any one contender that has the most riding on the contests now unfolding from Brazil to Japan. Clearly, though, the stakes for Saab and its Gripen are formidable. Lockheed Martin is poised to transition to the F-35 from F-16 production; Dassault will be building Rafales for the French government, albeit at paltry rates, for some time; and the Typhoon should be in production for the next decade. However, Saab lacks a strong domestic customer base, so its situation is more uncertain than its rivals'. Although the Swedish government supports the company's overseas ambitions, domestic procurements are hardly enough to sustain Gripen in the long term. As a result, Saab has opted for a two-pronged strategy - on the one hand, using its existing product to satisfy countries with immediate needs and, on the other, devising a completely new version, the Gripen Next Generation. The NG boosts the fighter's range and payload, while offering an updated combat suite with the addition of an active, electronically scanned array (AESA) radar. The NG also features an enhanced missile warning system using ultraviolet sensors with 5-km. (3.1-mi.) detection range. Other specifications include a high-data-rate communications system (being integrated by Saab and Thales), a low-rate data terminal and an image-transmitting wideband link offering 250-Kbps. throughput. Furthermore, the system allows for the eventual installation of directed infrared countermeasures. Aircraft designers considered future needs looming on the horizon, rather than the goals of a particular customer, says Pierre Gauffin, Gripen International's head of product capabilities. To allow for a higher maximum takeoff weight, the main landing gear was strengthened and relocated. The change opened up space for extra fuel, thereby increasing range. This approach also avoided major outer mold-line alterations, which had been considered to achieve the range increase. Moreover, Gripen NG embodies a new business model that aims to cut costs even with low production rates. "The market is extremely price-sensitive," and the build approach for the new version reflects this, says Bob Kemp, marketing director for Gripen International. In the past, Gripen embraced technologies that designers modified to fit specific needs - as was the case with the General Electric F404 engine that Volvo turned into the fighter's RM12 powerplant. For the Gripen NG, Saab went directly to GE and asked for an F414, the latest version of the F/A-18E/F's engine with minimal changes. The F414G features some adjustments to the full-authority digital engine control and power supply, largely because Gripen is a single-engine fighter (whereas the F/A-18E/F has two engines). This seemingly innocuous change allows Saab to reduce engine costs 20%, even though the F414 is a higher thrust engine with a greater sticker price than the F404. This design approach permeates the Gripen NG, says Kemp. Suppliers such as Honeywell and Rockwell were asked to provide their latest product and let Saab worry about integrating them, rather than devising tailor-made derivatives for the Gripen NG. To keep costs low, the NG may embrace the same pilot helmet used on the F-35. Meanwhile, the Gripen NG's future could come into focus soon: Norway and Brazil are the first countries expected to pass verdict in the international marketplace. The Norwegian government is in the final throes of completing its fighter assessment, in which Gripen is vying against the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, in which Oslo invested heavily during the American program's development phase. Norway anticipates buying 48 aircraft. A government recommendation to the Norwegian parliament on a type selection could occur before year-end. To bolster the NG's chances, the Swedish government has promised it would speed its plans to buy the fighter (becoming a co-launch customer), thus reducing the risk for Norway. Originally, Sweden had not intended to field the aircraft until the end of the decade. In Brazil, a type selection could follow in April; 36 aircraft are up for grabs. Both Norway and Brazil want to field the fighter around 2014-15. Brazil's acquisition schedule is driven by elections in 2010; the government wants to complete negotiations before then. Saab says it can have the first Gripen NG ready for 2014, and other nations could be involved in the development program. Production of the first prototype could start early next year. Saab has issued several tenders - including one for the AESA radar - to ensure that it has its supply base ready for the production go-ahead. While Thales is providing the radar for a demonstration program, the production contract could use a different partner. The active array is paired with the signal and data processor and exciter/receiver of the baseline PS05/A radar. The AESA has around 1,000 transmit/receive modules. The NG's exact technical configuration could still evolve, however, either in the short term or as product upgrades emerge. For instance, the missile warning system now baselined will still use UV sensors, but Saab is closely tracking the maturation of IR technology, which would improve the detection range. Technically, the two near-term campaigns may not be "make-or-break" events for the Swedish aircraft: In 2010, India is due to decide on 126 or more fighters. But early success would provide a sound footing and position the aircraft to be a more respectable entrant in other markets. On the other hand, failure could leave the stigma of a "paper airplane" hovering over the Gripen NG. To help the company counter such a perception, Saab has built the Gripen Demonstrator, which is now in flight trials. The first phase is evaluating the aircraft's handling qualities and modified flight control system. So far, more than 20 flights have been conducted, and the testing pace at Saab's Linkoping site will be intense before year-end, says Gauffin. "We are very happy with the configuration," and test personnel have not identified any major changes that would be required, he adds. The second phase of the demonstration program will start next year, when the two-seat aircraft is grounded for installation of the radar, missile warning system, satellite communications and broadband close-air support data link. Company engineers hope to have the aircraft flying again before the end of 2009. Flight trials would run the bulk of 2010. Saab is still evaluating whether to pursue a third phase for the demo program. This would involve installing and testing the avionics system; flight tests would occur around 2011. The company already has an extensive avionics ground test rig to reduce the NG's development risk. A big problem with the Gripen Demonstrator, however, is that some of the NG's core features - such as the radar and other elements of the mission system - will not begin trials until next year at the earliest. New weapons could also be part of the demo program, and both the Boeing Small-Diameter Bomb and Sagem AASM air-to-ground modular weapon are seen as candidates. Clearly, Saab has a lot riding on a successful Gripen NG. The goal is to sell 200 aircraft on the global market," says Saab CEO Ake Svensson. The company also is chasing potential orders in the Netherlands (85 aircraft), Denmark (48), Bulgaria (16) and Croatia (12). All this activity has driven up Saab's marketing costs, which has been a near-term drag on earnings margins. As for projects other than the Gripen NG, Saab officials are optimistic. In Switzerland, the company is still offering the C/D model that's now in production. Bern's requirement is more "near term," and the country has indicated that it's looking for an F-5 replacement, rather than chasing new combat aircraft technology. After withdrawing the F/A-18E/F from the Swiss contest, a Boeing official said Bern's approach means the Gripen is in the best position to win. However, representatives for the Typhoon and the Rafale, which remain in the running, dismiss Boeing's view. Around 30 fighters are at stake. Romania also is expected to make a procurement decision soon, with fielding planned around 2010. For small air forces, Gripen proponents are trying to make the case that they can give them what they need without the burden of supporting multiple aircraft. In particular, they are highlighting the Swedish air force's recent participation at the Red Flag exercise at Nellis AFB, Nev. Despite their first appearance at the event - Gripen had previously been at an Alaskan version - Swedish air force pilots were given the role of leading multi-ship raids, which was seen as an endorsement of both their skills and the attributes of their aircraft. To keep the basic Gripen relevant, block upgrades occur about every three years. The latest, Block 19, is due next year. It adds the capability to fire the Diehl BGT Defense IRIS-T dogfight missile, Link-16 data link and RVSM (reduced vertical separation minimums) ATC enhancements, as well as the Cobra helmet-mounted sight. Block 20, which is still being defined, is expected to include enhanced functions on the PS-05/A radar and the L-3 Communications Rover close-air-support imagery data link (AW&ST June 30, p. 42). Failure overseas would not shutter the Gripen production line immediately, but the existing order book alone is not enough to sustain Sweden's fighter ambitions for long. South African deliveries will run out in 2012, and Thailand has committed only to six aircraft, with deliveries to start in 2010 - although six more are almost assured, and the total program could reach 36 units. Additionally, the company is beginning to upgrade Sweden's Gripen A/Bs to the C/D configuration, as part of a Swedish air force plan to standardize its fleet to 100 aircraft of the same type. The overhaul basically replaces the existing fuselage (because of cockpit changes and the installation of an air-to-air refueling probe), while the A/B's wing and other structures are retained.