Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari delivers an opening speech at the Pakistan friends Conferrence in Tokyo on April 17, 2009. Almost 30 donor countries were due to meet in Japan to raise what the World Bank hopes will be four to six billion dollars in aid pledges for poor and violence-torn Pakistan.
Pakistan’s economy, considered South Asia’s second-biggest until recently, deteriorated in the past two years amid the highest interest rates in Asia, political wrangling and the nation’s fight against Taliban militants.
While the United States has promised to help Pakistan recover, US policy- makers have informed Islamabad that their aid will come with conditions.
‘Clearly, we are going to establish benchmarks. We want to see certain standards and goals met,’ said State Department spokesman Robert Wood while announcing Washington’s intention to make a generous pledge to Pakistan in Tokyo.
Pakistan was taken aback when a bill moved in the US House of Representatives last week sought to virtually run its foreign policy in return for $1.5 billion of annual aid for a period of five years.
The bill included some conditions that Pakistan had expected, such as a commitment to fighting terrorists and a strict supervision of how the money was spent.
But other restrictions go beyond Pakistan’s expectations and seek to rewrite Islamabad’s foreign policy and military strategy as well.
Under these conditions, Pakistan will have to change its attitude towards India, regarding it as a friendly nation and not an enemy whether New Delhi reciprocates such gestures or not. Islamabad will also have to ban all Kashmiri groups struggling to free the valley from India’s control. The bill reopens another sensitive issue by proposing a condition that will force Islamabad to allow US investigators access to Dr A. Q. Khan.
Pakistan’s envoy in Washington told Dawn before leaving for Tokyo to attend the donors’ conference that he believed some of these restrictions could and would be removed.
US lawmakers say that the conditions that require Pakistan to review its relationship with India and ban Kashmiri militant groups reflect their fear that both have contributed to increasing militancy in the region.
Senator Carl Levin, chairman of the Senate Committee on Armed Services, argues that Islamabad’s focus on India causes it to ignore the border with Afghanistan, which allows the militants to operate freely in the region.
Gen Karl Eikenberry, President Obama’s new envoy for Kabul who has headed US forces in Afghanistan, says that Kashmiri militant groups have had links to the Taliban and Al Qaeda and have participated in actions against US forces.
Diplomatic observers in Washington say that while the US Congress could soften the two conditions, in return the lawmakers may demand a firmer commitment from Pakistan to rein in the militants and to uproot those based in Fata.
Similarly, the condition for allowing US investigators access to nuclear proliferators could also be softened. It could be rephrased to cover future proliferators which would allow Pakistan not to produce Dr Khan before US investigators. The current House bill does not mention him but makes no distinction between future and past proliferators. WHO ARE THE FRIENDS AND WHAT ARE THEY DOING?
* The Friends of Pakistan group was set up in New York on Sept. 26, 2008, with the encouragement of the United States which wants to marshal political and economic support to promote Pakistani stability, which is key to security in the region.
* In particular, the group wants to help Pakistan foster economic development and fight terrorism.
* The group includes Australia, Britain, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, the United States, the United Nations and European Union.
* It is focusing on five areas: stability, development, Afghan border areas, energy and institution building.
* The Friends of Pakistan is not an aid pledging forum.
WHAT DOES PAKISTAN WANT FROM THE FRIENDS?
* Pakistan will aim to assure the Friends of Pakistan ministerial meeting of its commitment to tackling economic and security problems. President Asif Ali Zardari is expected to set out a medium-term "road map" for action on those issues.
* In conjunction with that, Pakistan is expected to present a prioritised wish-list of projects it has drawn up worth $30 billion which it wants to see implemented over the next 10 years.
* The list includes hydro-electric dams, roads and projects aimed at improving security.
* Pakistan has said it needs a "Marshall Plan" akin to U.S. spending in Europe after World War Two.
* Allies will reaffirm political support at the morning Friends meeting. Donors will make aid pledges in the afternoon.
HOW MUCH AID DOES PAKISTAN EXPECT?
* The donors conference, co-hosted by Japan and the World Bank, is focusing on bilateral aid in support of the $7.6 billion IMF loan.
* Pakistan is hoping for $4 billion to fill a financing gap with the aid to be focused on poverty alleviation, education and health. Those sectors have suffered under efforts to cut the fiscal deficit.
* If the aid were not to materialise, the poor would suffer but analysts say there is no tradition in Pakistan of mass unrest among the hungry. However, Islamist militants can find recruits from an ever-bigger pool of disaffected, unemployed young men.
WHO HAS GIVEN, OR WILL GIVE, WHAT?
* Japan is finalising plans to provide Pakistan with up to $1 billion in economic aid over the next two years, the Nikkei business daily reported on Saturday.
* The United States has pledged development aid of $1.5 billion a year for the next five years.
* The World Bank gave a $500 million interest free loan last month. It said in February it would lend Pakistan up to $2 billion this year.
* China gave $500 million in January to help Pakistan build foreign reserves.
* At donor meetings, countries sometimes re-pledge aid already committed as well as making pledges of new aid.
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