*Source: DTN News / Int'l Media
(NSI News Source Info) KABUL, Afghanistan - August 11, 2009: A U.S. government-funded survey of Afghan voters released Monday shows President Hamid Karzai with a substantial lead just 10 days before the country's presidential election, but still short of the support needed to avoid a run-off. 
Afghan President Hamid Karzai who is also a presidential candidate in the upcoming election, speaks during a gathering to mark International Youth Day in Kabul, Afghanistan on Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2009.
The poll shows Karzai with 36 percent support among all the voters surveyed. His closest competitor former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah has 20 percent support. Twenty percent of voters were undecided or refused to answer, while 23 percent supported other candidates.
Among voters who have already decided, Karzai had the support of 45 percent of respondents; Abdullah had 25 percent support.
If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote in the Aug. 20 election, the top two finishers go to a run-off.
The survey is the first to be conducted in the country since campaigning began and provides the first look at how the candidates are faring. Most observers have felt that Karzai is likely to win a second five-year term, though Abdullah has attracted large and energetic crowds at some campaign events. A poll in May before campaigning began showed Abdullah with just 7 percent support.
Karzai's campaign spokesman, Waheed Omar, said the poll underscored what the campaign believes is a large gap in support between Karzai and Abdullah. But he said the president's campaign believes Karzai can win 50 percent of the vote and avoid a run-off.
A spokesman for Abdullah dismissed the results but said the campaign would be ready to take on Karzai in a run-off.
The U.S.-funded poll was carried out by Glevum Associates, a Washington-based communications firm that has done survey work for the U.S. government and military. The poll surveyed 3,556 voting-age Afghans nationwide in mid-July and has a margin of sampling error of 1.6 percent. The survey was representative of Afghanistan's ethnic groups but polled slightly fewer females than males.
The third-place candidate in the poll was Ramazan Bashardost, a parliamentarian and former minister. Former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani was fourth with 3 percent support.
The poll found that 74 percent of Afghans said they would vote in next week's election, though the number dropped to around 50 percent in the south, where insurgent violence is highest. A lower turnout in the south _ where most are ethnic Pashtuns, like Karzai _ will likely hurt the president's results.
U.S., NATO and Afghan forces are working to keep the vote safe from attacks by Taliban militants, who have vowed to disrupt the election and have warned Afghans not to take part.
Despite the threats, the poll found that 79 percent of Afghans were certain or fairly certain the vote would be secure, though that number dropped somewhat in the south.
Some 65 percent of Afghans said the country was heading in the right direction.
At least one more poll is expected to be released before next week's election.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai who is also a presidential candidate in the upcoming election, speaks during a gathering to mark International Youth Day in Kabul, Afghanistan on Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2009.
The poll shows Karzai with 36 percent support among all the voters surveyed. His closest competitor former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah has 20 percent support. Twenty percent of voters were undecided or refused to answer, while 23 percent supported other candidates.
Among voters who have already decided, Karzai had the support of 45 percent of respondents; Abdullah had 25 percent support.
If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote in the Aug. 20 election, the top two finishers go to a run-off.
The survey is the first to be conducted in the country since campaigning began and provides the first look at how the candidates are faring. Most observers have felt that Karzai is likely to win a second five-year term, though Abdullah has attracted large and energetic crowds at some campaign events. A poll in May before campaigning began showed Abdullah with just 7 percent support.
Karzai's campaign spokesman, Waheed Omar, said the poll underscored what the campaign believes is a large gap in support between Karzai and Abdullah. But he said the president's campaign believes Karzai can win 50 percent of the vote and avoid a run-off.
A spokesman for Abdullah dismissed the results but said the campaign would be ready to take on Karzai in a run-off.
The U.S.-funded poll was carried out by Glevum Associates, a Washington-based communications firm that has done survey work for the U.S. government and military. The poll surveyed 3,556 voting-age Afghans nationwide in mid-July and has a margin of sampling error of 1.6 percent. The survey was representative of Afghanistan's ethnic groups but polled slightly fewer females than males.
The third-place candidate in the poll was Ramazan Bashardost, a parliamentarian and former minister. Former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani was fourth with 3 percent support.
The poll found that 74 percent of Afghans said they would vote in next week's election, though the number dropped to around 50 percent in the south, where insurgent violence is highest. A lower turnout in the south _ where most are ethnic Pashtuns, like Karzai _ will likely hurt the president's results.
U.S., NATO and Afghan forces are working to keep the vote safe from attacks by Taliban militants, who have vowed to disrupt the election and have warned Afghans not to take part.
Despite the threats, the poll found that 79 percent of Afghans were certain or fairly certain the vote would be secure, though that number dropped somewhat in the south.
Some 65 percent of Afghans said the country was heading in the right direction.
At least one more poll is expected to be released before next week's election.
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